As the world tries to meet its decarbonization goals, eco-friendly energy will become more important. To get to this level of growth, though, the government will have to keep backing the economy and spend more money.
How to Understand the Global Energy Perspectives for 2024
A 1.5°C road that is in line with the Paris Agreement is shown in detail in the Global Energy Perspective 2023. It shows how the supply and demand of energy goods will change. It says that by 2100, world temperatures will rise by between 1.6°C and 2.9°C, based on its four bottom-up energy transition models. There are more than 400 kinds of technologies, rules, costs, and fuels that could change these possible futures. Their goal is to let those in charge know about the issues that come up because of the energy shift.
The Role of Sustainable Fuels in Decarbonization
Important People in Sustainable Fuels
We need sustainable fuels like e-kerosene, hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), and better drop-in fuels like biofuels like ethanol to cut down on transportation carbon emissions that are hard to cut down. Plus, we need man-made energy like e-kerosene. Soon, these fuels will make it faster for present fleets to become less carbon-based, and their use is going to grow a lot in many places.
Sector-Specific Outlook
1. Aviation: Right now, the only real way to get rid of dirty fuels in wide-body, long-distance planes is to use sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). Things like gas and batteries are still just being thought about.
2. Road Transport: Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to replace regular cars on the roads. But fuels that can be used over and over will be very important for cutting the carbon footprint of cars with internal combustion engines.
4. Commercial Vehicles: BEVs are good for cars with short to middle ranges, and hydrogen use could grow a lot after 2030.
5. Maritime: From a maritime point of view, new fossil fuel choices include sustainable methanol, renewable or synthetic natural gas, and hydrogen products that don’t contain carbon, like ammonia.
6. Buildings: Renewable natural gas can be used instead of regular natural gas in buildings. Also, after 2030, more people will probably cook and heat their homes with power.
Growing Demand and Investment Needs
Because the government backs sustainable fuels and the transportation sector is already going towards lower carbon emissions, they are likely to become more popular. It will depend on what the government does, how technology gets better, and how laws are backed up on how useful these fuels are in the long run. As long as net-zero emissions goals are met and lawmakers back them, the world could need anywhere from 190 million tonnes per year (Mtpa) to 600 Mtpa of sustainable fuels by 2050.
Investment and Capacity Expansion
Estimated Needs for Investment
Huge amounts of money will need to be spent to boost production to meet the expected demand for sustainable fuels. HVO is expected to take the lead on these projects for now. It will cost a lot of money to make new fuel systems work after 2030. They will have cost between $1.6 trillion and $1.9 trillion by 2050.
Investments in planned capacity
There are already plans to spend more than $150 billion on making sustainable energy. This money will mostly come from HVO/HEFA places. Green diesel is expected to be in high demand in the short term. Around 2030, there will be a lot more desire for SAF. Methanol and gasification Fischer-Tropsch (FT) are two new ways to make fuels that will last. By 2030, they might provide one-fifth of the world’s long-term fuel needs.
Getting Past Problems with Feedstock
Feedstock Bottlenecks
The quantity of feedstock is very important for long-term fuel production because it affects 60–80% of the costs of making fuel. At the moment, sustainable fuels are made from sugars and oils that can be eaten. On the other hand, we need to turn to new feedstocks, such as feedstocks made from waste and synthetic fuels made from green power. Getting around problems with fuel is important for the growth of clean energy.
Reducing Carbon Intensity
The lifetime carbon intensity (CI) of the materials that are used needs to go down so that people will want to buy their fuels. Biogenic CO2 and environmentally friendly ways to grow feedstock foods can help with this. For growth in the future, it will be important to deal with things like CI and the flow of feedstock.
Conclusion: The Path Forward
There are many ways to get the energy industry to use less carbon, and sustainable fuels are one of them. But for things to reach their full potential, everyone will have to work together, the rules will have to be made clear, and a lot of money will have to be spent. If we all work together, we can make the world have less carbon emissions. This is good for the business and the environment.
